Greens leader Shane Rattenbury, Liberal leader Elizabeth Lee, Labor PM Andrew Barr and Independents for Canberra’s Thomas Emerson: How much money will they promise to buy your vote? Photos: Region.

You would think that with talk from both sides of a new stadium, more tram lines, hospital upgrades, promises of social housing for thousands of people, a new theatre – and why not throw in a convention centre? – ACT would be swimming in cash.

You might even think that we have solved all the problems plaguing modern cities.

Besides the fact that businesses are drowning in red tape, that the houses we have to build tout suite are all tied up in red tape, our primary emergency department is its own throbbing ache, we celebrate the fact that most of our students can read at their age, we reduce crime by legalizing everything (it didn’t take long to go down the slippery slope from decriminalizing marijuana to heroin to ice, did it?), our police stations are moldy piles of asbestos and diesel particulates (thankfully we don’t have enough cops, so at least they aren’t crowded – unlike our prison), our courts are notoriously lenient, and yet we lead the country in locking up Indigenous people (how does that work?) while we twist our arms and pat ourselves on the back during village open-the-envelope ceremonies… but at least we have big heartsNormal?

This doesn’t even get to the heart of the matter.

It looks like we’ve finally solved the problem of mowing and potholes in the roads that can be seen from space – until the next heavy rain, when the roads collapse and our mowing crews give in rain + sun = grass equation.

What else?

Debt. Dear God, debt.

We don’t talk about this much on the ACT. We should. Candidates should. It’s not good.

You know Victoria is an economic nightmare, right?

Their gross debt is $156.2 billion and their population is 6.9 million, which translates to a debt of $22,637 per person.

And you know that the Queensland Labor government is trying to buy itself an election victory despite having a gross debt of $147 billion and a population of 5.5 million, which equates to a debt of $26,727 per person.

Do you know what ACT is?

A gross debt of $17.4 billion for a population of 470,000 translates to a debt of $37,021 per person.

Of course, the ACT government prefers a net debt figure. Sure, let’s play.

The ACT’s net debt is about $10.7 billion, which translates to a debt per person of $22,765 – wait for it, Victoria!

And that’s before we even lift a shovel to fulfill the infrastructure wish list on both sides, which is pure fantasy.

So the next time you hear a promise from a candidate, ask yourself if we need the nonsense he promised more than we need schools where we can learn, hospitals where we can get treatment, and roads where you don’t need a four-wheel drive to get around safely.

You know who knows? Andrew Barr. That’s a bit of an exaggeration and shows a lot of nerve to lecture other parties about their spending when he spent money to create debt.

Is that fair? You decide. Andrew Barr became Treasurer in July 2011 and Prime Minister in December 2014.

As Jon Stanhope noted in July 2022: “In 2011, ACT had gross debt of $1.443 billion and negative net debt of $736 million, meaning that cash reserves were greater than accumulated debt and provided sufficient capacity to repay maturing debt.”

(“Negative net debt.” File under phrases you’ll never hear again, like “Oscar goes to Rob Schneider.”)

In the 2014-15 budget, when he became prime minister, the net debt (excluding super) was $1.22 billion. Today it is back to $10.7 billion.

Maybe Andrew Barr 2024 should meet Andrew Barr 2006.

In his inaugural address, Barr spoke about the importance of economic management. And surpluses.

“Good governance manages the economy responsibly, and good governance benefits the whole community. That is what underpins the delivery of the services that Canberrans want and need,” he said on 2 May 2006.

“Running a surplus operating budget ensures intergenerational equity. It means that every generation of ACT communities pays for the government services they receive.

“A budget surplus is essential to maintaining the territory’s AAA credit rating. A budget surplus also provides the basis for managing the risks and uncertainties that will inevitably arise in the future. It is why this government has achieved consecutive budget surpluses totaling $250 million since taking office.”

Ah, the good old days. When we had a surplus. And a AAA credit rating. What happened to that? Good question. We lost it. We must have left it on the tram.

Our credit rating was downgraded almost exactly one year ago, on September 11, 2023.

How Region reported: “The global rating agency downgraded ACT for the first time in more than 20 years, predicting a slower fiscal recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and higher spending.

“The agency downgraded ACT’s long-term issuer credit rating from the highest rating of AAA to AA+… S&P Global forecasts ACT’s debt-to-operating income ratio to reach 154 percent by 2026, significantly higher than its AAA-rated international peers.”

By the way, S&P has another update.

On September 11, 2024, they wrote: “We forecast ACT’s total tax-supported debt as a percentage of operating revenues to reach 179 percent in fiscal 2027, compared to 147 percent in fiscal 2023.”

Does it matter that we’ve been demoted? It does. Quite a bit. It means that the cost of our debt is getting more expensive.

What was all this about intergenerational equality?

But the real question is: what do we have to show?

About 12 km of light rail and a new hospital. It seems we don’t have much when we’re in a $17 billion hole and we refuse to stop digging.

So you ask, could liberals do better? Unlikely.

However, if by some miracle the Canberra Liberals form a government on 19 October, their promises will likely only make the debt problem worse, and it is bread and circuses that we do not need and certainly cannot afford.

So if you’re the current crowd, you’ll probably park your vote with Labor’s fellow traveller, Independents for Canberra. Sure, they talk a lot, and Dr Vanessa Picker in Brindabella has apparently decided not to support Andrew Barr, but will the Pocock-lite party support the Liberals? I doubt it.

Could the Greens become the largest party? It is possible – very possible. There would be hilarity. The humiliation they have suffered at the hands of Labour, their main coalition partner for years, would be avenged, and that would be hilarious to watch.

If the Greens win, we can expect many Labour MPs to suddenly decide they would rather spend time with their families.

HL Mencken wrote: “Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it nice and hard.”

It will happen. It always does. And all debts will be paid.

The election is less than four weeks away. Many promises will be made between now and then. One of them should be to stop digging.