By John Hood

Four years ago, we entered the home stretch of the 2020 election cycle with 7.1 million North Carolinians registered to vote, 36 percent Democrats and 30 percent Republicans. The rest were unaffiliated (33 percent) or in alternative parties.

This year, as of early September, 7.6 million North Carolinians were registered to vote. Democrats’ share has fallen to 32 percent. Republicans’ share remains about 30 percent. Unaffiliated voters make up almost 38 percent. Here’s another way to think about the changes: Over the past four years, Democratic registration has fallen by about 146,000, while the GOP has gained 137,000 and the unaffiliated category has grown by almost half a million.

While it would be hard to portray these trends as helpful to Democratic candidates in North Carolina, their practical significance is open to debate. Many of these independent voters lean ideologically left but aren’t as comfortable as previous generations with embracing the Democratic label (remember, voter registration is public information).

Moreover, some of these new, unaffiliated registrants — whether newcomers to North Carolina or longtime residents — are at best “soft” partisans in their voting behavior. They tend to vote for candidates of one party or the other, but are open to persuasion (or to leaving certain races off the ballot).

Still, I think it’s instructive to look more closely at the registration data. At the very least, it can point to places where the two major parties are getting stronger or struggling.

For example, there were counties where new Republican registrations roughly matched or exceeded unaffiliated registrations over the past four years. Some of these were sparsely populated rural areas, such as Alleghany, Cherokee, Clay, Gates and Surry. Others were growing retirement communities, such as Brunswick and Carteret.

There were also six counties that have more Democrats today than in 2020: Brunswick, Cabarrus, Chatham, Johnston, Union and Wake. All of those counties are growing rapidly, so even though Democrats have grown, the party has lost ground to the GOP in all counties except Wake.

Of course, Wake is a pretty big “but.” With 844,070 registered voters, it now accounts for 11 percent of North Carolina’s total. It’s actually one of the few places where the Republican ranks have shrunk (by about 7,200 voters). In the next-largest group of registered voters, Mecklenburg’s 812,623, both Democratic and Republican registrations have declined.

Although some national pundits who occasionally fly to North Carolina fail to appreciate this, our two most populous counties account for less than a quarter of the electorate. Yes, these and our other urban counties tend to lean Democratic. But most North Carolinians live in suburban counties, smaller towns, and rural communities. That’s why Republicans continue to successfully compete for most statewide offices and control the state legislature (redistricting really only affects their chances for a supermajority).

After analyzing some of the same data, my John Locke Foundation colleague Andy Jackson recently noted that so far this year, new Democratic and Republican registrations are happening at half the pace of the same period in 2020, while unaffiliated voters are registering at higher levels. Overall, 77,024 new people registered in the first week of September 2020, compared with 60,978 in the first week of September 2024.

Here’s my take on it: Registration trends are no guarantee of election results. It’s certainly better for your party to grow than to shrink. But North Carolina’s unaffiliated population already makes up a large majority, and it will only get bigger over time.

Most independent voters remain reliable Republican or Democratic voters. But given the rough parity of the two party bases, even a handful of soft partisans and truly undecided voters — five to 10 percent of the electorate, depending on race — could tip the scales.

Resources matter. Enthusiasm and turnout matter. Messages matter. And most importantly, candidates matter. It’s very likely that a mix of Republicans and Democrats will win competitive districts and statehouses this year—as usual.

John Hood is a trustee of the John Locke Foundation. His latest books, Mountain Folk and Forest Folk, combine epic fantasy with early American history (FolkloreCycle.com).